OBAMA AHEAD
By Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor
Fueled by increased optimism about the economy and nation’s direction, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points among likely voters and now sees his job-approval rating reaching the 50 percent threshold for the first time since March, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
The survey – which was conducted after the two party conventions and the political firestorm over last week’s U.S. embassy attacks, but before Romney’s controversial comments about the 47 percent of the country “who are dependent on government” – shows the percentages believing that the country is headed in the right direction and thinking that the economy will improve at their highest levels since 2009.
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In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.
National Review and Bloomberg View’s Ramesh Ponnuru, Roll Call’s Shira Toeplitz and The Hotline’s Reid Wilson take a look at the latest numbers out of the NBC, Wall Street Journal and Marist poll and talk about how battleground states may play out for the presidential candidates.
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Among a wider sample of registered voters, the president’s lead is 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent – up from Obama’s 4-point edge last month, 48 percent to 44 percent.
“It’s clear to me that Barack Obama has moved a … step ahead,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
Evan Vucci / AP
President Barack Obama waves as he boards Air Force One on Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2012 in Andrews Air Force Base, Md.
Yet Hart cautions, “It’s a step and only a step.”
Read the full poll here (.pdf)
For his part, McInturff adds that the presidential race may very well have seen an inflection point. “The president is in a stronger position than he was before the convention.”
But noting similarities between the current numbers and those from the 2004 George W. Bush vs. John Kerry race, he urges that this contest could be just as competitive.
“If you look at ’04 as a model, ’04 was really close. And that’s how we should continue to think about the campaign.”
Economic optimism on the rise
According to the survey, 39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.
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That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009.
Forty-two percent of voters also believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is a 6-point jump from August, and a 15-point rise from July.
NBC/WSJ poll: Optimism in Obama presidency increases
What’s more, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy – up 3 points from last month. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent for the first time since March.
And 38 percent say the country is better off than it was when he became president, which is a 7-point increase from August. But a plurality of voters – 41 percent – maintain that the country is worse off; 21 percent say it’s in the same place.
Obama vs. Romney on the issues
While none of these numbers is ideal for a president facing re-election, Obama is now tied with Romney (43 percent to 43 percent) on which candidate would be better on the economy. In July, Romney held a 6-point advantage on this question.
Hart, the Democratic pollster, says this finding is potentially ominous for Romney. “Simply put, if Romney doesn’t win on dealing with the economy, he doesn’t win.”
On other issues, Obama leads Romney on dealing with taxes (45 percent to 39 percent) and on dealing with Medicare (47 percent to 37 percent).
And the president is ahead of his Republican challenger on three character traits – being a good commander in chief (45 percent to 38 percent), dealing with issues of concern to women (54 percent to 26 percent), and looking out for the middle class (53 percent to 34 percent).
NBC’s Chuck Todd says, “Mitt Romney is not a good campaigner” and still must answer questions regarding his comments that were caught on tape. A Morning Joe panel then debates whether Team Romney needs a campaign shakeup.