NATHAN SILVER 10/23/2012
President
Nov. 6 Forecast
President
Now-cast
Senate
Nov. 6 Forecast
Mitt Romney Barack Obama
247.2
-1.6 since Oct. 15
290.8
+1.6 since Oct. 15
Electoral
vote
270 to win
JuneJulyAugSeptOctNov330270210
29.7%
-4.3 since Oct. 15
70.3%
+4.3 since Oct. 15
Chance of
Winning
50%