Jobs News Makes Obama’s Case Easier
By NATE SILVER
Whenever a new set of jobs numbers is announced, it is important to keep in mind just how noisy the data can be.

Forecasts of the monthly growth in nonfarm payrolls miss by 68,000 jobs on average. That means that the margin of error on the forecasts, enough to cover 95 percent of all possible outcomes, is wider still: plus or minus about 170,000 jobs.

This is not merely because economic forecasting is difficult. It is also because the economy is a hard thing to measure, and the initial estimates of jobs growth are crude. On average, the initial monthly jobs numbers are eventually revised upward or downward by 70,000 jobs.

Nor do the monthly revisions necessarily cancel out. Instead, whole seasons, and indeed whole years, can sometimes be revised.

Last month, for instance, the government estimated that 386,000 more jobs than it had originally reported were created between April 2011 and March 2012, or about 32,000 per month. These estimates will be refined and officially incorporated into the numbers, when the government announces its benchmark revisions to the labor numbers on Feb. 1, 2013.

Thus, the threshold for what counts as an economically and politically significant jobs report ought to be fairly high. Not every month’s report can or should be a “game-changer.” Indeed, the public has often reacted more calmly to both good and bad monthly jobs reports than the political cognoscenti do.

Was Friday’s jobs report, which showed 114,000 jobs added in September and the unemployment rate dropping to 7.8 percent, strong enough to be one of the exceptional cases?

My view is that the answer is yes: this report really does warrant some attention. Read more…
October 5, 2012, 7:25 AM180 Comments
Oct. 4: Too Soon to Gauge Impact of Debate on Polls
By NATE SILVER
This might be bad for business — but you probably ought not to pay too much attention to the numbers you see in the right-hand column of this blog over the next day or two.

It’s just too soon answer the question of what impact Wednesday night’s debate in Denver, which instant-reaction polls judged to be a clear win for Mitt Romney, will have on the head-to-head polls.

The Gallup and Rasmussen Reports national tracking polls as they were published on Thursday, for instance, reveal nothing at all about the debate, since only a tiny fraction of their interviews were conducted after its conclusion.

To the extent there was a tempting nugget of information, it was from the Ipsos online tracking poll. That survey broke out results from interviews that it conducted after the debate, and found Mr. Romney trailing Mr. Obama, 43 percent to 48 percent, among those voters.
Read more…
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES October 4, 2012, 2:31 PM242 Comments
Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls
By NATE SILVER
It may be a bit fruitless to spend too much time worrying about the Wednesday afternoon FiveThirtyEight forecast when Wednesday night’s debate had the potential to change the election landscape. But for the sake of continuity, here goes.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast had Mr. Obama gaining slightly on Wednesday, estimating that he had a 86.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 — up from 84.7 percent in Tuesday’s forecast.

This came despite the fact that it appeared there actually had been a modest shift back toward Mitt Romney in the polls even before the debate. In our “now-cast” — an estimate of what would happen if an election were held immediately — Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote had fallen by about one percentage point between Sunday and Wednesday.

Our Nov. 6 forecast, however, had already anticipated some decline for Mr. Obama, and so has been less sensitive to the shift.

In addition, there is a particular Electoral College outlook that is becoming problematic for Mr. Romney. As of Wednesday, our Nov. 6 forecast had Mr. Obama winning the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points. However, his advantage was larger than that — at least 4.9 percentage points, in 22 states (and the District of Columbia) — totaling 275 electoral votes:

I highlight New Hampshire in yellow on this map because, although it is one of the states where Mr. Obama’s lead now exceeds 4.9 percentage points, it is neither necessary nor sufficient for him to win the Electoral College votes in this configuration.

New Hampshire is not necessary because you could remove its 4 electoral votes from Mr. Obama’s column and he would still have 271, a winning total. It is not sufficient because if you removed any competitive state but New Hampshire from Mr. Obama’s column (for example, Nevada) he would at best achieve a 269-269 tie.

Really, a great deal of this comes down to Ohio. Historically, Ohio is about two percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole. This year, however, it has polled as being Democratic-leaning by one percentage point or so. Read more…
October 4, 2012, 1:46 AM463 Comments
Polls Show a Strong Debate for Romney
By NATE SILVER
Instant-reaction polls conducted by CNN and CBS News suggest that Mitt Romney was the winner of the first presidential debate.

A CNN poll of debate-watchers found Mr. Romney very clearly ahead, with 67 percent of registered voters saying he won the debate, against just 25 percent for President Obama.

A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 46 percent siding with Mr. Romney, 22 percent for Mr. Obama and 32 percent saying it was a tie.

Google, which is experimenting with online surveys, found 38.9 percent of respondents saying they thought Mr. Obama performed better in a poll it conducted during the debate, against 35.5 percent for Mr. Romney and 25.6 percent who said it was a draw. But a second poll they conducted after the debate found 47.8 percent of respondents giving Mr. Romney the advantage, against 25.4 percent for Mr. Obama. Read more…
October 3, 2012, 7:52 PM
The First Presidential Debate |
As President Obama and Mitt Romney meet in Denver for their first presidential debate, check out The Times’ debate live blog for complete coverage. Times reporters and editors will provide real-time updates, analysis, fact-checking and answers to reader questions. Go to the Live Blog »
October 3, 2012, 2:30 PM77 Comments
Obama Leads, but a Romney Comeback Might Start Out West With Colorado
By MICAH COHEN
We continue our Presidential Geography series, a one-by-one examination of each state’s political landscape and how it’s changing. Here is a look at Colorado, the Centennial State. FiveThirtyEight spoke with Peter Hanson and Seth Masket, two professors of political science at the University of Denver, and Kyle L. Saunders, an associate professor of political science at Colorado State University.

Colorado, the host state of the first presidential debate on Wednesday night, is a fitting platform for President Obama and Mitt Romney to begin making their closing pitch to voters. Colorado is a persuadable state, with a relatively balanced partisan split and a large number of swing voters.

Moreover, if the debates represent Mr. Romney’s last, best chance at a comeback, Colorado and the West may present the most likely starting point. Mr. Obama’s standing, compared to 2008, has appeared to deteriorate more in the West — specifically the Mountain West — than in other regions. That shift is evident in Colorado, although Mr. Obama has maintained a narrow lead in surveys there.

But the fact that Colorado is a political battleground at all is a recent development. It was a reliably Republican state just 10 years ago, having favored G.O.P. presidential candidates in every election but two — 1964 and 1992 — since 1950.

In 2000, Al Gore won the national popular vote, but George W. Bush easily carried Colorado. In 2002, Republicans held the governorship, the state’s two United States Senate seats, five of Colorado’s seven seats in the United States Congress, as well as majorities in the Colorado State Senate and Statehouse.

But fast-forward six years, and everything had been reversed. Democrats held both Senate seats, five United States Congressional seats, and majorities in both houses of the Colorado legislature. Republicans were left with only two House seats, exactly what Democrats had been clinging to in 2002. Read more…
October 3, 2012, 8:33 AM121 Comments
First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls
By NATE SILVER
Conventional wisdom holds that the first presidential debate offers an especially good opportunity for the challenging candidate, who for the first time gets to stand on a literal public stage, and a proverbial level playing field, with the incumbent president.

As much as we like to debunk the conventional wisdom at FiveThirtyEight, this hypothesis has the ring of empirical truth to it. There are no guarantees for Mitt Romney, and if he makes gains in the polls following Wednesday night’s debate in Denver, they will probably be fairly modest. But if historical precedent is any guide, he is more likely than not to see his standing improve at least some.

This analysis will be quite simple: I’ve made a comparison of the polls just before and just after the presidential debate in years dating back to 1976.

The polls in the “before” row consist of a simple average of all polls that ended their interviewing within a week before the first debate. The polls in the “after” row consist of those that began their interviewing in the week that followed it. Polls that overlapped with the debate are excluded.

In the table that follows, I’ve viewed the impact of the debate from the standpoint of the incumbent-party and challenging-party candidates. I make no distinction based on whether the incumbent-party candidate was literally the incumbent president, or instead just the standard-bearer for his party. But in all years in this analysis except for 2008, the incumbent-party candidate was the current vice president if he was not the current president, which may put some of the same dynamics into play.

There is a lot of detail in the table, but let me give you the numbers and then we can describe some of the more interesting bits.

The first thing to notice is that the debates normally have a modest impact. Read more…
October 2, 2012, 9:35 PM86 Comments
Oct. 2: Good News for Romney in National Polls, and Obama in Pennsylvania
By NATE SILVER
Tuesday’s polls obeyed by largely the same themes as Monday’s. There were signs of tightening toward Mitt Romney in the national polls, but they were harder to discern in state surveys, which remained strong for President Obama.

In this case, however, the data from national polls won out in the forecast, with Mr. Obama’s odds of winning the Electoral College declining to 84.7 percent from 85.7 percent on Monday.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll published on Tuesday showed Mr. Obama with a 3-point lead among likely voters — down from a 5-point advantage in a poll they took just after the Democratic convention. There are a few caveats here: Mr. Obama’s lead was 5 points with third-party candidates included on the ballot. And his standing did not decline in the version of poll among registered voters. (Although that’s quite a mixed blessing for Mr. Obama because it implies that the gap between likely voters and registered voters has widened.) But The Wall Street Journal and NBC News conduct top-notch surveys, so this is a decent data point for Mr. Romney.

And an unambiguously strong poll for Mr. Romney came late on Tuesday, when National Journal published a survey showing a 47-47 tie among likely voters. The trendline is favorable for Mr. Romney in this poll as well, because its previous survey had shown Mr. Obama with a 7-point lead.

Mr. Romney also gained 2 points in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll and 1 point in the weekly national poll published by Public Policy Polling. A contradictory data point was from the Gallup national tracking poll, which had Mr. Obama gaining 2 points.

Mr. Romney got several poor state surveys on Tuesday, however. Most notable were a Virginia poll, from Roanoke College, which gave Mr. Obama an 8-point lead among likely voters, and a Nevada poll, from the firm We Ask America, which gave him a 10.5-point lead in that state.

It’s hard to know whether this reflects an increasing gap between the swing states and the rest of the country, or, rather, is more of a statistical quirk. Our research suggests that both state polls and national polls are useful in calibrating an overall estimate of the national popular vote. In some years, like 1996 and 2000, state polls were generally highly accurate, while the national polls had a bias on one or another direction. Read more…
October 2, 2012, 12:21 PM193 Comments
Oct. 1: Is the Presidential Race Tightening Heading Into the Debates?
By NATE SILVER
There are two basic types of information that we’re looking to discern out of each poll. One is simply the raw number: how much does the poll have President Obama leading or trailing Mitt Romney by? The other is the trendline: does the poll show toward a shift toward either candidate from previous editions of the same survey?

In the long run, you’d hope that the answers to these questions are compatible with one another. If a set of polls show good numbers for Mr. Obama, you’d expect them to be good in both an absolute sense and also relative to earlier points in the race.

But sometimes there are days when looking at the polls through these different frames produces a somewhat different take on them. Monday was one such occasion.

There were nine national polls published on Monday, which are listed in the table below. On average, they showed Mr. Obama with a 3.5 percentage point lead over Mr. Romney.

That’s smaller than the leads we were seeing in national polls last week, which seemed to be concentrated more in the range of a five- or six-point lead for Mr. Obama. It also suggests a smaller lead than recent state-by-state polls seem to imply. Read more…
October 1, 2012, 10:51 PM279 Comments
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
By NATE SILVER
As of Monday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, there were 21 states that Barack Obama was projected to have at least an 85 percent chance of winning on Nov. 6. The list includes three important states, Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, where Mr. Obama’s polling has improved by an especially clear margin since the Democratic convention. It did not include several others, however, where he is favored, but less definitively so, such as Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Florida.

If Mr. Obama’s overall standing holds in its current position, he should have no trouble winning some of those states, perhaps along with others like North Carolina. But suppose there is a deterioration in his polls between now and Nov. 6 — or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others. Then we’d be left with the following map:

If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie. The election would then be thrown to the House of Representatives, which would cast votes based on the provisions of the 12th Amendment.
Read more…
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FiveThirtyEight Forecast
Updated 6:10 PM ET on Oct. 5
President
Nov. 6 Forecast
President
Now-cast
Senate
Nov. 6 Forecast
President
Nov. 6 Forecast
President
Now-cast
Senate
Nov. 6 Forecast
Mitt Romney Barack Obama
220.3
-0.6 since Sept. 28
317.7
+0.6 since Sept. 28
Electoral
vote
270 to win
JuneJulyAugSeptOct330270210
15.1%
-2.2 since Sept. 28
84.9%
+2.2 since Sept. 28
Chance of
Winning
50%
JuneJulyAugSeptOct0%25%50%75%100%
47.5%
+0.0 since Sept. 28
51.4%
+0.0 since Sept. 28
Popular
vote
50%
JuneJulyAugSeptOct46%50%54%
Mitt Romney Barack Obama
210.3
+10.6 since Sept. 28
327.7
-10.6 since Sept. 28
Electoral
vote
270 to win
JuneJulyAugSeptOct330270210
4.2%
+2.0 since Sept. 28
95.8%
-2.0 since Sept. 28
Chance of
Winning
50%
JuneJulyAugSeptOct0%25%50%75%100%
47.0%
+0.5 since Sept. 28
51.7%
-0.5 since Sept. 28
Popular
vote
50%
JuneJulyAugSeptOct46%50%54%
Republicans Democrats
48.1
-0.2 since Sept. 27
51.9
+0.2 since Sept. 27
Number of
seats
50 seats
JulyAugSeptOct485052
17.3%
-4.2 since Sept. 27
82.7%
+4.2 since Sept. 27
Chance of
Majority
50%
JulyAugSeptOct0%25%50%75%100%
Advertisement

State-by-State Probabilities
Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.

Electoral Vote Distribution
The probability that President Obama receives a given number of Electoral College votes.

1502102703303905%10%15%20%25% probability
Tipping Point States
The probability that a state provides the decisive electoral vote.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Ohio 41.4%
6 Colo. 6.0%
11 Me. Dist. 2 0.8%
2 Va. 15.3%
7 Iowa 5.5%
12 N.M. 0.6%
3 Nev. 8.4%
8 N.H. 2.8%
13 N.C. 0.5%
4 Wis. 7.8%
9 Pa. 1.5%
14 Mich. 0.5%
5 Fla. 7.3%
10 Minn. 1.2%
15 N.J. 0.1%
Return on Investment Index
The relative likelihood that an individual voter would determine the Electoral College winner.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Nev. 11.3
6 Wis. 3.6
11 Minn. 0.6
2 Ohio 9.8
7 Colo. 3.3
12 Pa. 0.3
3 N.H. 5.5
8 Me. Dist. 2 3.0
13 Neb. Dist. 2 0.1
4 Va. 5.5
9 Fla. 1.2
14 Mich. 0.1
5 Iowa 4.8
10 N.M. 0.9
15 N.C. 0.1
Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.8%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 6.0%
Obama wins popular vote 84.4%
Romney wins popular vote 15.6%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.7%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.2%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 5.9%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 1.2%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 94.4%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 16.7%
State-by-State Probabilities
Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.

Electoral Vote Distribution
The probability that President Obama receives a given number of Electoral College votes.

1502102703303905%10%15%20%25% probability
Tipping Point States
The probability that a state provides the decisive electoral vote.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Ohio 42.4%
6 Fla. 6.6%
11 Me. Dist. 2 0.5%
2 Va. 15.7%
7 Iowa 5.9%
12 N.M. 0.4%
3 Nev. 8.0%
8 N.H. 3.2%
13 Mich. 0.3%
4 Colo. 7.5%
9 Minn. 1.2%
14 N.C. 0.1%
5 Wis. 6.9%
10 Pa. 0.9%
15 N.J. 0.1%
Return on Investment Index
The relative likelihood that an individual voter would determine the Electoral College winner.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Nev. 10.8
6 Colo. 4.1
11 Minn. 0.6
2 Ohio 10.1
7 Wis. 3.1
12 Pa. 0.2
3 N.H. 6.3
8 Me. Dist. 2 1.8
13 Mich. 0.1
4 Va. 5.6
9 Fla. 1.1
14 Mont. 0.1
5 Iowa 5.2
10 N.M. 0.7
15 N.D. 0.0
Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 3.0%
Obama wins popular vote 96.6%
Romney wins popular vote 3.4%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.3%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 0.5%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 2.0%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 1.8%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 96.0%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 12.6%
State-by-State Probabilities
Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.

Senate Seat Distribution
The probability that the Republican or Democratic party controls the senate by a given number of seats.

+10
Rep.Tie+10
Dem.5%10%15% probability
Tipping Point States
The probability that a state provides the Senate seat that leads to a majority.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Va. 12.7%
6 Ind. 5.9%
11 Fla. 3.6%
2 Mo. 11.4%
7 Ohio 5.7%
12 Mont. 3.6%
3 Wis. 11.2%
8 Nev. 5.3%
13 Pa. 3.5%
4 Mass. 10.6%
9 N.M. 3.8%
14 N.J. 2.5%
5 Conn. 6.5%
10 Ariz. 3.7%
15 Mich. 1.7%
Democratic Bang for the Buck
The relative amount that a $2,500 contribution to the senate candidate would increase the Democratic Party’s chances of winning the seat.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Ariz. 5.1
6 Nev. 1.8
11 Mont. 1.3
2 Ind. 4.7
7 Hawaii 1.5
12 Va. 1.2
3 N.D. 2.6
8 N.M. 1.5
13 Pa. 1.2
4 Conn. 2.3
9 Wis. 1.4
14 Mo. 0.9
5 Neb. 2.0
10 Tex. 1.3
15 Ohio 0.8
Republican Bang for the Buck
The relative amount that a $2,500 contribution to the senate candidate would increase the Republican Party’s chances of winning the seat.

Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
1 Mo. 2.9
6 Ariz. 2.1
11 N.D. 1.3
2 Ind. 2.7
7 Mont. 1.7
12 N.J. 1.2
3 Wis. 2.6
8 W.Va. 1.6
13 Mich. 1.2
4 Neb. 2.6
9 N.M. 1.5
14 Fla. 1.2
5 Me. 2.5
10 Nev. 1.4
15 Va. 1.0
State-by-State Projections
Detailed polling analysis and projections for the statewide presidential vote, along with recent polls where available.

Filter:
Lean Obama Colorado
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 48.7 45.4 Obama +3.3
Adjusted polling average 49.0 45.7 Obama +3.3
State fundamentals 49.9 44.5 Obama +5.4
Now-cast 49.2 45.5 Obama +3.7
Projected vote share ±4.8 51.2 47.9 Obama +3.3
Chance of winning 74% 26%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
We Ask America * 9/27 49.3 45.5 Obama +3.8
PPP * 9/23 49.0 43.0 Obama +6.0
Gravis Marketing 9/22 50.2 45.5 Obama +4.7
Purple Strategies 9/19 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
NBC/Marist 9/18 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
More
Lean Obama Florida
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 48.3 46.3 Obama +2.0
Adjusted polling average 48.6 46.3 Obama +2.3
State fundamentals 47.8 46.9 Obama +0.9
Now-cast 48.5 46.4 Obama +2.1
Projected vote share ±4.3 50.6 48.8 Obama +1.8
Chance of winning 66% 34%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Rasmussen 10/4 47.0 49.0 Romney +2.0
NBC/Marist 10/1 47.0 46.0 Obama +1.0
Gravis Marketing 9/30 49.0 48.4 Obama +0.6
Suffolk * 9/30 46.0 43.0 Obama +3.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/24 53.0 44.0 Obama +9.0
More
Likely Obama Iowa
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 48.5 44.3 Obama +4.2
Adjusted polling average 48.4 44.9 Obama +3.5
State fundamentals 49.8 44.0 Obama +5.8
Now-cast 48.7 44.7 Obama +4.0
Projected vote share ±5.1 51.1 47.6 Obama +3.5
Chance of winning 76% 24%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
We Ask America * 9/27 47.5 43.7 Obama +3.8
Des Moines Register 9/26 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
PPP 9/26 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
Voter Consumer Research 9/25 46.0 47.0 Romney +1.0
American Research Group 9/23 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
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Lean Romney North Carolina
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 47.1 47.5 Romney +0.4
Adjusted polling average 47.1 47.8 Romney +0.7
State fundamentals 46.0 48.1 Romney +2.1
Now-cast 46.9 47.9 Romney +1.0
Projected vote share ±4.0 49.1 50.3 Romney +1.2
Chance of winning 37% 63%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Rasmussen 10/2 47.0 50.0 Romney +3.0
SurveyUSA 10/1 49.0 47.0 Obama +2.0
PPP 9/30 48.0 48.0 Tie
American Research Group 9/30 46.0 50.0 Romney +4.0
NBC/Marist 9/25 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
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Likely Obama New Hampshire
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 50.5 43.6 Obama +6.9
Adjusted polling average 50.6 44.1 Obama +6.5
State fundamentals 51.8 42.0 Obama +9.8
Now-cast 50.9 43.6 Obama +7.3
Projected vote share ±5.6 53.0 46.2 Obama +6.8
Chance of winning 89% 11%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
UNH 9/30 54.0 39.0 Obama +15.0
American Research Group 9/27 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
PPP 9/25 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
NBC/Marist 9/25 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 9/19 52.0 45.0 Obama +7.0
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Likely Obama Nevada
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 49.6 45.2 Obama +4.4
Adjusted polling average 49.8 45.2 Obama +4.6
State fundamentals 50.9 43.0 Obama +7.9
Now-cast 50.0 44.7 Obama +5.3
Projected vote share ±4.6 51.9 47.0 Obama +4.9
Chance of winning 85% 15%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Gravis Marketing 10/3 48.9 47.8 Obama +1.1
We Ask America * 9/27 52.5 42.0 Obama +10.5
NBC/Marist 9/25 49.0 47.0 Obama +2.0
American Research Group 9/23 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
Public Opinion Strategies 9/20 46.0 46.0 Tie
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Likely Obama Ohio
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 49.6 44.2 Obama +5.4
Adjusted polling average 49.6 44.4 Obama +5.2
State fundamentals 49.0 45.4 Obama +3.6
Now-cast 49.5 44.5 Obama +5.0
Projected vote share ±4.3 51.7 47.1 Obama +4.6
Chance of winning 85% 15%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Rasmussen 10/4 50.0 49.0 Obama +1.0
NBC/Marist 10/1 51.0 43.0 Obama +8.0
PPP 9/30 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
Columbus Dispatch 9/29 51.0 42.0 Obama +9.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/24 53.0 43.0 Obama +10.0
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Likely Obama Virginia
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 48.1 44.8 Obama +3.3
Adjusted polling average 48.1 45.2 Obama +2.9
State fundamentals 49.4 45.2 Obama +4.2
Now-cast 48.3 45.2 Obama +3.1
Projected vote share ±4.0 50.9 48.2 Obama +2.7
Chance of winning 76% 24%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Rasmussen 10/4 48.0 49.0 Romney +1.0
NBC/Marist 10/1 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Roanoke College 9/28 47.0 39.0 Obama +8.0
American Research Group 9/27 49.0 47.0 Obama +2.0
Suffolk * 9/26 46.0 44.0 Obama +2.0
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Likely Romney Nebraska CD-2 District 2
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 43.7 45.7 Romney +2.0
Adjusted polling average 44.9 47.5 Romney +2.6
State fundamentals 43.5 49.9 Romney +6.4
Now-cast 43.9 49.1 Romney +5.2
Projected vote share ±4.9 46.5 52.1 Romney +5.6
Chance of winning 13% 87%
* Poll indicates a three-person matchup between President Obama, Mitt Romney and Gary Johnson

State-by-State Projections
Detailed polling analysis and projections for the statewide presidential vote, along with recent polls where available.

Lean Republican Arizona
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 41.7 43.9 Flake +2.2
Adjusted polling average 42.2 44.1 Flake +1.9
State fundamentals 39.8 48.5 Flake +8.7
Now-cast 41.8 44.9 Flake +3.1
Projected vote share 47.0 50.0 Flake +3.0
Chance of winning 31% 69%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
PPP 10/3 45.0 43.0 Carmona +2.0
Moore Information 9/26 40.0 43.0 Flake +3.0
Rasmussen 9/25 41.0 47.0 Flake +6.0
YouGov 9/14 37.0 44.0 Flake +7.0
PPP 9/9 43.0 44.0 Flake +1.0
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Safe Democratic California
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 54.5 33.2 Feinstein +21.3
Adjusted polling average 56.2 34.1 Feinstein +22.1
State fundamentals 57.7 31.8 Feinstein +25.9
Now-cast 56.6 33.6 Feinstein +23.0
Projected vote share 60.3 37.3 Feinstein +23.0
Chance of winning 100% 0%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Field Poll 9/18 57.0 31.0 Feinstein +26.0
YouGov 9/14 53.0 35.0 Feinstein +18.0
M4 Strategies 9/12 52.0 30.0 Feinstein +22.0
SurveyUSA 9/11 55.0 37.0 Feinstein +18.0
Field Poll 7/2 51.0 32.0 Feinstein +19.0
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Lean Democratic Connecticut
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 45.4 44.3 Murphy +1.1
Adjusted polling average 46.8 45.5 Murphy +1.3
State fundamentals 53.0 35.3 Murphy +17.7
Now-cast 47.6 44.2 Murphy +3.4
Projected vote share 50.7 47.3 Murphy +3.4
Chance of winning 69% 31%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Quinnipiac 10/2 47.0 48.0 McMahon +1.0
PPP 9/26 48.0 42.0 Murphy +6.0
U. of Conn. 9/16 37.0 33.0 Murphy +4.0
YouGov 9/14 41.0 45.0 McMahon +4.0
Quinnipiac 8/26 46.0 49.0 McMahon +3.0
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Safe Democratic Delaware
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
State fundamentals 62.0 27.6 Carper +34.4
Now-cast 62.0 27.5 Carper +34.5
Projected vote share 65.9 31.5 Carper +34.4
Chance of winning 100% 0%
Safe Democratic Florida
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 47.4 40.0 Nelson +7.4
Adjusted polling average 48.7 39.8 Nelson +8.9
State fundamentals 49.6 42.3 Nelson +7.3
Now-cast 48.8 40.0 Nelson +8.8
Projected vote share 53.1 44.2 Nelson +8.9
Chance of winning 97% 3%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
NBC/Marist 10/1 52.0 41.0 Nelson +11.0
Gravis Marketing 9/30 43.1 43.0 Nelson +0.1
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/24 53.0 39.0 Nelson +14.0
PPP 9/23 46.0 37.0 Nelson +9.0
Mason-Dixon 9/19 48.0 40.0 Nelson +8.0
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Safe Democratic Hawaii
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 55.1 39.0 Hirono +16.1
Adjusted polling average 55.4 39.1 Hirono +16.3
State fundamentals 50.1 41.9 Hirono +8.2
Now-cast 53.7 40.0 Hirono +13.7
Projected vote share 56.0 42.3 Hirono +13.7
Chance of winning 98% 2%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Honolulu Civil Beat 9/28 55.0 39.0 Hirono +16.0
Honolulu Advertiser 7/21 58.0 39.0 Hirono +19.0
Honolulu Civil Beat 6/7 49.0 44.0 Hirono +5.0
Honolulu Advertiser 2/5 57.0 37.0 Hirono +20.0
Honolulu Civil Beat 1/19 46.0 39.0 Hirono +7.0
Tossup Indiana
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 40.0 38.4 Donnelly +1.6
Adjusted polling average 43.6 41.5 Donnelly +2.1
State fundamentals 44.2 46.5 Mourdock +2.3
Now-cast 43.9 44.1 Mourdock +0.2
Projected vote share 48.3 48.5 Mourdock +0.2
Chance of winning 49% 51%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Howey/DePauw 9/23 40.0 38.0 Donnelly +2.0
Rasmussen 8/1 40.0 42.0 Mourdock +2.0
Howey/DePauw 3/27 35.0 35.0 Tie
Lean Democratic Massachusetts
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 47.0 45.2 Warren +1.8
Adjusted polling average 48.5 46.7 Warren +1.8
State fundamentals 47.9 41.6 Warren +6.3
Now-cast 48.4 46.2 Warren +2.2
Projected vote share 50.4 48.1 Warren +2.3
Chance of winning 70% 30%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Opinion Dynamics 9/30 48.0 44.0 Warren +4.0
MassINC Polling Group 9/28 49.0 45.0 Warren +4.0
UNH 9/27 43.0 38.0 Warren +5.0
Rasmussen 9/24 48.0 48.0 Tie
Kimball Political Consulting 9/20 47.0 48.0 Brown +1.0
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Safe Democratic Maryland
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
State fundamentals 57.1 32.4 Cardin +24.7
Now-cast 57.1 32.4 Cardin +24.7
Projected vote share 61.1 36.4 Cardin +24.7
Chance of winning 98% 2%
Likely Independent Maine
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS IND REP MARGIN
Polling average 51.7 38.4 King +13.3
Adjusted polling average 52.1 38.9 King +13.2
State fundamentals 54.2 37.7 King +16.5
Now-cast 53.1 38.1 King +15.0
Projected vote share 50.0 35.1 King +14.9
Chance of winning 87% 9%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE IND REP MARGIN
Rasmussen * 9/25 45.0 33.0 King +12.0
PPP * 9/18 43.0 35.0 King +8.0
Maine People’s * 9/17 43.8 28.2 King +15.6
Critical Insights * 9/16 50.0 28.0 King +22.0
GS Strategy Group * 9/6 44.3 33.5 King +10.8
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Safe Democratic Michigan
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 49.0 40.0 Stabenow +9.0
Adjusted polling average 51.4 39.0 Stabenow +12.4
State fundamentals 50.4 41.5 Stabenow +8.9
Now-cast 51.3 39.3 Stabenow +12.0
Projected vote share 54.8 42.9 Stabenow +11.9
Chance of winning 98% 2%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Gravis Marketing 9/22 53.5 39.6 Stabenow +13.9
Rasmussen 9/20 53.0 37.0 Stabenow +16.0
Detroit News 9/16 50.0 34.0 Stabenow +16.0
YouGov 9/14 46.0 40.0 Stabenow +6.0
MRG 9/14 46.2 40.2 Stabenow +6.0
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Safe Democratic Minnesota
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 54.5 32.7 Klobuchar +21.8
Adjusted polling average 55.7 33.2 Klobuchar +22.5
State fundamentals 54.9 35.8 Klobuchar +19.1
Now-cast 55.5 33.7 Klobuchar +21.8
Projected vote share 60.9 39.1 Klobuchar +21.8
Chance of winning 100% 0%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Star Tribune 9/19 57.0 28.0 Klobuchar +29.0
YouGov 9/14 50.0 35.0 Klobuchar +15.0
PPP 9/11 55.0 36.0 Klobuchar +19.0
SurveyUSA 9/9 55.0 34.0 Klobuchar +21.0
SurveyUSA 7/19 55.0 31.0 Klobuchar +24.0
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Likely Democratic Missouri
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 45.5 43.7 McCaskill +1.8
Adjusted polling average 46.8 43.6 McCaskill +3.2
State fundamentals 47.5 44.4 McCaskill +3.1
Now-cast 46.8 43.6 McCaskill +3.2
Projected vote share 50.4 47.2 McCaskill +3.2
Chance of winning 78% 22%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
PPP * 10/3 46.0 40.0 McCaskill +6.0
Rasmussen 10/2 51.0 45.0 McCaskill +6.0
We Ask America 9/27 46.0 45.2 McCaskill +0.8
Chilenski Strategies 9/20 46.5 47.5 Akin +1.0
Gravis Marketing 9/17 40.0 43.6 Akin +3.6
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Safe Republican Mississippi
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
State fundamentals 27.9 61.6 Wicker +33.7
Now-cast 28.0 61.6 Wicker +33.6
Projected vote share 31.9 65.5 Wicker +33.6
Chance of winning 0% 100%
Lean Republican Montana
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 44.8 45.9 Rehberg +1.1
Adjusted polling average 45.6 46.1 Rehberg +0.5
State fundamentals 41.5 50.4 Rehberg +8.9
Now-cast 44.2 47.6 Rehberg +3.4
Projected vote share 47.2 50.7 Rehberg +3.5
Chance of winning 30% 70%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Mason-Dixon 9/19 45.0 48.0 Rehberg +3.0
PPP * 9/11 45.0 43.0 Tester +2.0
Rasmussen 8/20 43.0 47.0 Rehberg +4.0
Rasmussen 6/18 47.0 49.0 Rehberg +2.0
Rasmussen 5/2 43.0 53.0 Rehberg +10.0
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Likely Republican North Dakota
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 42.5 48.2 Berg +5.7
Adjusted polling average 45.7 48.6 Berg +2.9
State fundamentals 40.3 50.4 Berg +10.1
Now-cast 40.7 50.2 Berg +9.5
Projected vote share 45.3 54.7 Berg +9.4
Chance of winning 12% 88%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Rasmussen 7/11 40.0 49.0 Berg +9.0
Mason-Dixon 6/6 47.0 46.0 Heitkamp +1.0
Forum/Essman 5/8 44.0 51.0 Berg +7.0
Safe Republican Nebraska
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 38.2 55.7 Fischer +17.5
Adjusted polling average 39.2 56.1 Fischer +16.9
State fundamentals 43.1 47.6 Fischer +4.5
Now-cast 40.9 52.3 Fischer +11.4
Projected vote share 43.5 54.9 Fischer +11.4
Chance of winning 6% 94%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Wiese Research Associates 9/20 40.0 56.0 Fischer +16.0
We Ask America 8/14 34.0 55.0 Fischer +21.0
Rasmussen 5/16 38.0 56.0 Fischer +18.0
PPP 3/25 38.0 48.0 Fischer +10.0
Rasmussen 3/5 34.0 46.0 Fischer +12.0
Safe Democratic New Jersey
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 47.2 34.5 Menendez +12.7
Adjusted polling average 48.7 35.5 Menendez +13.2
State fundamentals 48.6 42.1 Menendez +6.5
Now-cast 48.6 36.8 Menendez +11.8
Projected vote share 54.2 42.4 Menendez +11.8
Chance of winning 96% 4%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Monmouth U. 9/23 49.0 34.0 Menendez +15.0
YouGov 9/14 44.0 31.0 Menendez +13.0
Philadelphia Inquirer 9/12 43.0 32.0 Menendez +11.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 9/12 50.0 36.0 Menendez +14.0
Quinnipiac 9/2 50.0 40.0 Menendez +10.0
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Safe Democratic New Mexico
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 50.9 40.4 Heinrich +10.5
Adjusted polling average 51.9 40.6 Heinrich +11.3
State fundamentals 45.9 44.8 Heinrich +1.1
Now-cast 50.9 41.4 Heinrich +9.5
Projected vote share 54.8 45.2 Heinrich +9.6
Chance of winning 93% 7%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
We Ask America 9/27 52.3 40.8 Heinrich +11.5
Rasmussen 9/27 52.0 39.0 Heinrich +13.0
YouGov 9/14 50.0 36.0 Heinrich +14.0
PPP 9/9 50.0 41.0 Heinrich +9.0
Research & Polling 9/6 49.0 42.0 Heinrich +7.0
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Tossup Nevada
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 42.7 45.3 Heller +2.6
Adjusted polling average 43.5 45.6 Heller +2.1
State fundamentals 47.5 43.2 Berkeley +4.3
Now-cast 44.0 45.3 Heller +1.3
Projected vote share 48.1 49.4 Heller +1.3
Chance of winning 41% 59%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
We Ask America 9/27 44.9 45.2 Heller +0.3
NBC/Marist 9/25 43.0 49.0 Heller +6.0
PPP 9/20 48.0 44.0 Berkeley +4.0
Public Opinion Strategies 9/20 39.0 44.0 Heller +5.0
Rasmussen 9/18 41.0 42.0 Heller +1.0
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Safe Democratic New York
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 59.2 25.8 Gillibrand +33.4
Adjusted polling average 60.7 27.2 Gillibrand +33.5
State fundamentals 62.9 26.7 Gillibrand +36.2
Now-cast 61.2 27.1 Gillibrand +34.1
Projected vote share 65.6 31.5 Gillibrand +34.1
Chance of winning 100% 0%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
YouGov 9/14 53.0 26.0 Gillibrand +27.0
Quinnipiac 9/9 64.0 27.0 Gillibrand +37.0
Siena 8/19 65.0 22.0 Gillibrand +43.0
Quinnipiac 7/23 57.0 24.0 Gillibrand +33.0
Siena 7/15 62.0 25.0 Gillibrand +37.0
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Safe Democratic Ohio
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 48.1 41.0 Brown +7.1
Adjusted polling average 49.1 41.0 Brown +8.1
State fundamentals 44.9 47.0 Mandel +2.1
Now-cast 48.8 41.4 Brown +7.4
Projected vote share 52.5 45.1 Brown +7.4
Chance of winning 92% 8%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
NBC/Marist 10/1 50.0 41.0 Brown +9.0
PPP 9/30 49.0 41.0 Brown +8.0
Columbus Dispatch 9/29 49.0 39.0 Brown +10.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/24 50.0 40.0 Brown +10.0
Gravis Marketing 9/22 43.9 43.0 Brown +0.9
More
Safe Democratic Pennsylvania
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 45.5 37.6 Casey +7.9
Adjusted polling average 48.8 39.7 Casey +9.1
State fundamentals 52.7 36.8 Casey +15.9
Now-cast 49.2 39.3 Casey +9.9
Projected vote share 53.6 43.7 Casey +9.9
Chance of winning 95% 5%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Muhlenberg 9/26 44.0 36.0 Casey +8.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/24 49.0 43.0 Casey +6.0
Franklin & Marshall 9/23 48.0 38.0 Casey +10.0
Mercyhurst College 9/20 31.0 21.0 Casey +10.0
Susquehanna 9/20 46.0 41.0 Casey +5.0
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Safe Democratic Rhode Island
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 55.9 30.0 Whitehouse +25.9
Adjusted polling average 55.9 30.1 Whitehouse +25.8
State fundamentals 51.4 38.1 Whitehouse +13.3
Now-cast 54.4 32.8 Whitehouse +21.6
Projected vote share 60.8 39.2 Whitehouse +21.6
Chance of winning 99% 1%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Fleming & Associates 9/29 56.0 0.0 Whitehouse +56.0
WPRI 9/29 55.7 0.0 Whitehouse +55.7
WPRI 2/23 50.0 28.0 Whitehouse +22.0
Fleming & Associates 2/23 50.1 0.0 Whitehouse +50.1
Safe Republican Tennessee
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
State fundamentals 34.2 55.3 Corker +21.1
Now-cast 34.3 55.3 Corker +21.0
Projected vote share 38.3 59.3 Corker +21.0
Chance of winning 3% 97%
Safe Republican Texas
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 27.8 50.5 Cruz +22.7
Adjusted polling average 31.5 49.8 Cruz +18.3
State fundamentals 37.6 49.5 Cruz +11.9
Now-cast 33.4 49.7 Cruz +16.3
Projected vote share 39.9 56.2 Cruz +16.3
Chance of winning 2% 98%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Texas Lyceum 9/26 24.0 50.0 Cruz +26.0
YouGov 9/14 32.0 51.0 Cruz +19.0
PPP 4/22 34.0 44.0 Cruz +10.0
PPP 1/15 31.0 41.0 Cruz +10.0
Safe Republican Utah
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 29.0 63.0 Hatch +34.0
Adjusted polling average 31.2 65.6 Hatch +34.4
State fundamentals 28.9 61.9 Hatch +33.0
Now-cast 28.9 62.0 Hatch +33.1
Projected vote share 33.5 66.5 Hatch +33.0
Chance of winning 0% 100%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Dan Jones 6/21 29.0 63.0 Hatch +34.0
Likely Democratic Virginia
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 46.6 44.0 Kaine +2.6
Adjusted polling average 47.9 44.3 Kaine +3.6
State fundamentals 48.6 44.5 Kaine +4.1
Now-cast 47.9 44.3 Kaine +3.6
Projected vote share 50.8 47.2 Kaine +3.6
Chance of winning 83% 17%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
NBC/Marist 10/1 49.0 44.0 Kaine +5.0
Roanoke College 9/28 47.0 37.0 Kaine +10.0
Suffolk 9/26 44.0 44.0 Tie
Fox News 9/18 47.0 43.0 Kaine +4.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/17 51.0 44.0 Kaine +7.0
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Safe Independent Vermont
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS IND REP MARGIN
State fundamentals 60.6 30.1 Sanders +30.5
Now-cast 60.7 30.0 Sanders +30.7
Projected vote share 64.1 33.4 Sanders +30.7
Chance of winning 99% 1%
Safe Democratic Washington
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 53.6 37.1 Cantwell +16.5
Adjusted polling average 55.8 38.0 Cantwell +17.8
State fundamentals 53.5 37.2 Cantwell +16.3
Now-cast 55.0 37.7 Cantwell +17.3
Projected vote share 58.6 41.4 Cantwell +17.2
Chance of winning 99% 1%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Rasmussen 9/26 57.0 37.0 Cantwell +20.0
YouGov 9/14 51.0 37.0 Cantwell +14.0
SurveyUSA 7/18 51.0 40.0 Cantwell +11.0
PPP 6/17 51.0 35.0 Cantwell +16.0
PPP 2/19 51.0 36.0 Cantwell +15.0
More
Likely Democratic Wisconsin
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 47.9 45.1 Baldwin +2.8
Adjusted polling average 48.6 45.3 Baldwin +3.3
State fundamentals 46.0 45.9 Baldwin +0.1
Now-cast 48.4 45.4 Baldwin +3.0
Projected vote share 51.5 48.5 Baldwin +3.0
Chance of winning 76% 24%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Wilson 10/2 48.0 45.0 Baldwin +3.0
Marquette U. 9/30 48.0 44.0 Baldwin +4.0
We Ask America 9/23 51.8 40.4 Baldwin +11.4
PPP 9/19 49.0 45.0 Baldwin +4.0
NBC/Marist 9/18 48.0 46.0 Baldwin +2.0
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Safe Democratic West Virginia
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 66.1 26.9 Manchin +39.2
Adjusted polling average 67.7 27.6 Manchin +40.1
State fundamentals 50.5 39.0 Manchin +11.5
Now-cast 54.0 36.7 Manchin +17.3
Projected vote share 58.7 41.3 Manchin +17.4
Chance of winning 95% 5%
POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
R.L. Repass 8/25 66.0 27.0 Manchin +39.0
R.L. Repass 4/28 74.0 22.0 Manchin +52.0
Safe Republican Wyoming
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
State fundamentals 22.8 67.9 Barrasso +45.1
Now-cast 22.9 67.9 Barrasso +45.0
Projected vote share 27.5 72.5 Barrasso +45.0
Chance of winning 0% 100%
* Poll indicates a three-person matchup

FiveThirtyEight

THE DATA DESK
Document: LAFD chief’s statement on CPR report http://t.co/GGK7Yv9c 25 minutes ago

MATT YGLESIAS
Obama’s day-late Sesame Street zingers are pretty funny: http://t.co/lUtoPtFl #jerkstorecalled 30 minutes ago

STEVEN SHEPARD
The call was horrible, but this display in Atlanta is disgraceful. 41 minutes ago

STEVEN SHEPARD
Oh my. 42 minutes ago

PUBLICPOLICYPOLLING
That is probably the worst call in the history of baseball 42 minutes ago

DAVID LEONHARDT
Obama’s post-debate Big Bird strategy, from @MarkLandler: http://t.co/Jx3hYw6s 52 minutes ago

JOHN HARWOOD
Job # conspiracy talk esp dumb since it wouldn’t work. # way over-hyped. Voters don’t decide how they feel abt econ based on govt statistic about an hour ago

TYLERCOWEN
What could go wrong with your 3-D printable gun project?, http://t.co/aUAKenuL as-3d-printer-is-seized.html, HT Mark Thorson about an hour ago

MATT YGLESIAS
Jew so hard. #sukkot http://t.co/Bh1Dx5jL about an hour ago

JOHN HARWOOD
Thank you @IvanTheK: Why is @JohnJHarwood getting all this guff from Dem supporters today? This guy is right down the fairway. about an hour ago

MATT YGLESIAS
“Interface” by Neal Stephenson & his uncle is a whole book about a wired-up candidate with a plot to implement a deficit grand bargain. about an hour ago

MATT YGLESIAS
It’s Friday, Friday, gotta go to synagogue on Friday. Everybody’s looking forward to the Shabbat service. about an hour ago

MATT YGLESIAS
Had forgotten about the Bush wearing a wire during the 2004 debate theory. That was a fun one. about an hour ago

JONATHAN BERNSTEIN
Q Day 8: An Ethics Question http://t.co/vQDPsBM5 about 2 hours ago

MARK BLUMENTHAL
And I’ll be on #HuffPostLive talking about the new polls in about 25 mins http://t.co/pKlkrFUL #polls about 2 hours ago

MARK BLUMENTHAL
Pollster tracking model for US pop vote narrows to +3.1 Obama http://t.co/a01YXdxM about 2 hours ago

JOHN HARWOOD
Note to self: our great, free country has always had lots of foul-mouthed paranoid kooks. Social media just makes them more conspicuous now. about 2 hours ago

KATHIE OBRADOVICH
Rep. Bruce Braley calls Sue Dvorsky “the tallest state party chair in America.” #iadems 19 days ago

NICK CONFESSORE
NYT’s @jonathanweisman tells me that growth in # of Hisp voters in FL since ’08 exceeds entire # of Jewish voters in state. #themoreyouknow 39 days ago

CARRIE DANN
Via WaPo, Team Obama will open its 14th and 15th Virginia offices on Saturday. http://t.co/Hl3aC1TS 149 days ago

JOSH GREENMAN
We rule. MT @hypebot: “The human race generates more data every 2 days than we did from the dawn of civilization until 2003.” – Eric Schmidt 164 days ago

TIME.COM
U.S. housing starts slow, but permit requests rise | http://t.co/pOBftZjY 171 days ago

DAVE WASSERMAN
New @NationalJournal piece out today: Why 2013 will be 1st year white men are a minority of House Dems ($) http://t.co/EkCe7wKK 175 days ago

OHIO_POLITICS
GOP insiders say Ohio is most important state in the election. Dems go with Florida in National Journal report. http://t.co/ra70Cg7B 176 days ago

PROPUBLICA
Study suggests waste from oil and gas drilling is behind the “unusual number” of quakes: http://t.co/8qhJztWb #muckreads 176 days ago

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