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Published: Friday, January 27, 2012
Tax reform not enough to solve cultural inequality
By James McCusker, Herald Columnist
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Simple theories and explanations are more likely to be right than complicated ones.

That’s what William of Occam (or Ockham) told us over six centuries ago, and our experience since then has most often proved him right.

His rule about this is called “Occam’s razor,” and what it says is, that if there are competing theories the one with fewer assumptions is more likely to be the correct one.

The reasoning behind this is itself straightforward and simple. We make assumptions when we don’t actually know something. So the less we know about a subject, the more assumptions we have to make and the less likely that our theories will be correct.

The mathematical models used in economics and in weather forecasting are great examples of how Occam’s razor is useful. When we look at the number of assumptions in these models, for example, we can see that there is a lot we don’t know. And that tells us why the models are so often wrong: The weather forecast misses just one little thing like an ice storm; the economic forecast mistakes a market hiccup for an economy that belongs in intensive care.

Unfortunately, Occam’s razor doesn’t mean that all simple theories are right. If that were the case, we could rely on Punxsutawney Phil and grandpa’s game leg to forecast snow storms. And people spouting, “It’s the law of supply and demand” would tell us all we need to know about our job prospects.

Besides, things aren’t always simple. At least, they don’t come that way out of the box. They can only be simplified by knowledge and solved with insight.

A very important issue in our America, for example, is the gap between rich and poor — and the impermeable class structure it is constructing. And there is no shortage of explanations; television news is awash in them. But they are most often burdened more with opinion than knowledge and insight. There aren’t any explanations, theories or cures that are both simple and right, at least so far.

One person who is providing us with knowledge and insight about this issue is Charles Murray. He believes that “America is coming apart” because the cultural equality of our country, the signature characteristic of our country from its beginning and throughout its history, has vanished.

His new book, “Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010,” is scheduled for publication at the end of this month and has two significant aspects of his work embedded in the title.

The first is that the cultural inequality that he is writing about would be there even if racial inequalities were pulled from the table. He believes, and demonstrates, that “Cultural inequality is not grounded in race or ethnicity.” The second is that the timeline for our cultural equality’s vanishing act is very clear, or at least its beginning is.

It began in the 1960s. Some of its roots undoubtedly can be found in earlier times, but the visible signs first began showing up in the decade that gave us noncontact dancing, televised war, prolonged adolescence, drug dependency and an overdeveloped sense of self.

Murray sees that what we once called “the American way of life” described a civic culture bound together by “shared experiences of daily life and shared assumptions about … American values involving marriage, honesty, hard work and religiosity.”

The shared culture began to break apart with the development of a new and distinct upper class whose tastes and values had little in common with what we now call “mainstream America.” At almost precisely the same time we saw the development of a new and distinct lower class that had equally little in common with that America.

Murray believes public policies implemented by government “jump-started the deterioration” but thinks the question of who or what started it all really isn’t as important as recognizing that we have a problem and doing something about it.

While not interested in fault-finding, Murray has a healthy skepticism about the effectiveness of government programs as solutions. He believes, for example, that, because our class structures are so self-reinforcing and dug-in that “changes in marginal tax rates on the wealthy won’t make a difference.”

Despite our facing what seems to be an impossible problem, there is no sense of hopelessness in Murray’s view of America. Murray places his faith in Americans, and he believes that once they understand the problem they will solve it themselves, for themselves, “one family at a time.”

He is also very aware of role that Occam’s razor can play in this and how knowledge can sweep away misleading assumptions. With knowledge we can solve difficult problems; with insight we can solve the impossible ones.

James McCusker is a Bothell economist, educator and consultant. He also writes a monthly column for the Snohomish County Business Journal.

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Comments
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Success
As I travel around, I see a part of this complex equation to success, has to be family stability. Personal responsibility. You simply cannot have the abuse and drug usage that we see running rampant and expect people to be employable. Too many people think they can live irresponsible drug/alcohol addicted lives and that the government/we the people, will be there to pay them money when they fail. Failure happens, but staying a failure can’t be an option. The numbers are staggering. I also think that part of this equation has to be to revamp from the top down how much of a burden government has become to the average business start up/owner. The amount of regulations and burdens and requirements on businesses is way too discouraging and leaves only the priveledged the ability to survive. Government has become like the mafia, they all want their little piece of your hard earned work to the point where it’s discouraging to small businesses and they all, county, city, state, federal, all have reasons which sound good to them to have their hands in all of our pockets, but hurt peoples abilities to make a living. Think of all the money that is required simply to make sure a company has all the proper bonds and insureance so they don’t get sued? The burdens become too much. Tort reform should be a part of the equation too.
January 27, 2012 5:02 pm | or | Request Removal

Geterdone C
Tennesseeretiree
That might be the case for some (or maybe even most) but some do manage to rise up out of poverty to become succeessful. Oprah is one example. There was also a story in the paper awhile back about a woman who was on food stamps/welfare that got her college degree and went on to get a career.

Success can be measured in a variety of ways, but if you have money but are miserable at your job, then, in my view, you are not truly successful.
January 27, 2012 4:09 pm | or | Request Removal

David Schatz
Country-wide
It sounds like he is thinking of a secular revival of the American society and cultural values, or maybe another wave of what was called the Great Awakening, I believe.
January 27, 2012 11:19 am | or | Request Removal

Click
Bottom Line
I believe the single-most factor of one’s success in life (how ever you define success) is the family into which you are born. Period.
January 27, 2012 9:04 am | or | Request Removal

Tennesseeretiree