THE DAY OIL WILL BEGIN TO DRY UP

Quinn, Jane Bryant (2004) “Gas Guzzlers’ Shock Therapy” NEWSWEEK, August 16, p. 65

Think Thanksgiving week end of 2005. That is the time when oil supplies may begin to drift downward. Prices will vary but the lows of the past will now not be so low and the highs will get higher. This forecast is one of Princeton geology professor. See oilspeak.com/

Big guns in the field including other geologists, merchant bankers, analysts, and petroleum engineers seem to agree. As a futurist, my first impression is to be skeptical.
By that, this type of prediction about food and other important survival substances have been wrong in the past.

However, the general trend APPEARS to be heading in the direction stated by the professor. We may delay the day with new findings of oil, but the general premise seems to hold up. Further, when business and academia agree on something that can spark interest in some validity to the forecast, we can guess there is something to this issue.

So IF the following appears to be valid, all of us should start thinking GREEN. We have 2 cars in our family. One gets 40 miles to the gallon and the other garners 25. That’s not bad. However, if you don’t like Green legislation, then the market will talk to you in plain English. You will pay more for less in adjusted dollars.

On the other hand, there are available technologies now that save money. My guess is that as oil increases, these new technologies will become attractive and profitable.

It will take awhile, but in the long run, we can keep if not expand a way of life that is comfortable, but varies or differs from what we have now.

 

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