THE FUTURE OF SOCIALISM

 

IN MEMORIAM

 

Socialism is dead.

The future belongs to capitalism.

The proclamation did not come from a group of neo-

conservatives, but by socialist themselves. In a recent

issue of NATION, Benjamin Rush, a leftist, indicated that

this ideology will be missed by generations of activists and

scholars who wanted to make a better world.

 

A few weeks later, numerous American socialists made their

reply, but Rush's observations appear to have won the day.

DISSENT another leftist periodical also made the same

proclamation and Marxist scholar Eugene Genovese indicated

that the grand march of the old left was over. He also

apologized for the atrocities of Stalin.

 

Capitalism in it's various forms now seem to rule the world

for now and in the foreseeable future.

 

SOCIALISMS

 

Briefly, what one meant by socialism differed by time,

place, and country.

 

Command socialism is the word most Americans mean when they

say the word "communism." It meant that the public or the

government owned most of the productive property and

planning was based upon an managing an industry for the

entire society or a coordinating all industries within a

region of the country. This is the socialism of Lennin and

Mao.

 

The former USSR now appears to have some form of

capitalism(s) and China is moving toward capitalism.

Incidentally, Marx was alleged to have said that after

looking at all the socialisms proclaimed in his name, that

"I am not a Marxist."

 

Marxism once attracted, premier futurist, Alvin Toffler as

he noted in his PREVIEWS/PREMISES, AN INTERVIEW WITH THE

AUTHOR. During the 30's with widespread economic depression

in much of the world, Toffler sought this ideology to keep

the world afloat. However, he renounced his position later

 

 

 

in life, because Marxists were so wrong in the future

projections that capitalism would fail in the 1940's and

onward.  He also did not like what was going on overseas in

the name of Marxism and he returned to capitalism.

When Americans describe "socialism" they generally mean the

political policies of some European countries when at one

time selected industries were owned by the government, but

the country had a market system. In America, this has been

called "creeping" socialism. It originated with the

socialists of England called the Fabians for their

"cautious" and evolutionary approach to change a society to

socialism.

 

Another variety is that of Scandinavia where the economy was

private, but the government provided services and a

socialist ethic to it's people. When futurists were asked in

1974 by US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT what the United States

would be like in 1994, this is the America they described.

The USA would have a guaranteed annual income and national

health insurance along with numerous workers compensations.

There would be regulatory boards to all private property,

but not outright nationalization of any industry.

This type of socialism is often called Welfare Liberalism or

Social Democratic socialism. It is also a type of Fabianism

mentioned earlier.

 

All of the above are now dying or being scaled back.

Numerous reports in TIME, NEWSWEEK, NATION, NEW REPUBLIC and US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT indicate that human services have

become too costly to be able to compete in the global

information society.

 

CAPITALISM

 

If there is one thing that futurists should note is that tho

following unc^rlies much of the rapid change going on in the

world now and in the foreseeable future. From US NEWS, it is

"capital can now move almost anywhere, and labor can not."

That is probably the most powerful statement of the 21st

century. A recent issue of BUSINESS WEEK describe 21st

century capitalism as roving and rolling over nations,

states, provinces, in a matter of seconds. Billions are

quickly moved from one country to another. John Petersen's

TOWARD THE ROAD TO 2015, describes this same phenomena.

The winners in this new market place are the rich and the

professional class, along with young technocrats who can

travel light and have multiple skills.

 

 

 

WELFARE LIBERALISM

 

A number of scholars placed the demise of welfare liberalism

in the late Cater years here in the United States.Throughout

the 80's, Reagen and Bush did not cut programs but they

diminished them. Clinton has changed the focus but not the

direction. We are on balance moving to a more privatized

economy.

 

As Petersen notes in 2015, those societies that survive have

speedy and adaptable governments that can quickly and

efficiently provide the necessary services to it's

constituents. It is also pragmatic, whether it is a public

agency or a private company that does the service. Does it

do the job? If it is federal, state, or local, are the

desired results obtained? In other words, what works?

Does government serve the "common good?"

 

LIBERTARIAN CAPITALISM

 

A new book by David Frum entitled DEAD RIGHT was given an

elaborate review by conservative George Will of NEWSWEEK.

Frum suggests that although conservatives in the USA

continue to win election after election, they refuse to

return the country to their ideals. He notes in a NEW

REPUBLIC REVIEW that the Religious Right has overwhelming

lost the battle of values even though they win elections.

Further, corporate capitalists wanting a more private

society also blink when push comes to shove. To get rid of

the welfare state, politicos on the Right need to dismantle

and terminate Social Security, Medicare, Veteran's benefits,

and related.

 

Joe Klein, a political moderate in NEWSWEEK suggests chat

the social security system be privatized as it is in Chile.

 

THE SOCIAL SYSTEM

 

The late Talcott Parson, a conservative sociologist, in his

SOCIAL SYSTEM  argued that any society to survive must be

able to accomplish it's goals of production and services

( goal attainment) and be able to change in an ongoing and

changing global society (goal adaptation.) The Economic Forum of Switzerland now suggests that we are #1 in that department. Within the last decade, the USA has made the necessary changes to be the first in the world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This was accomplished by downsizing workers and middle

managers in major industries, outsourcing manual jobs, and

having skilled employees work continuously on an overtime

basis. As the FUTURIST noted, scenarios of future American

capitalism have most workers "on call" working

intermittently throughout each year and subject to dismissal

on a daily basis.

 

Parsons also suggest that society must also remain

interfaced and connected (integration) so that all parts of

the system know what the other parts are doing. The metaphor

of course is the vast communication system now in place here

in this country.

 

The last is morale..he called it "tension management."

Here, we fall down as a country. Leftist, Daniel Singer of

NATION  suggests that most of Europe and other democracies

are moving toward the American model. However, there is a

problem. Most countries no longer envy us in terms of our

internal culture. They don't want the crime, the

homelessness, and the disarray, the poverty, or the rotted

cities that they believe America is facing. Polling data

reported in Petersen's 2015 support that Americans feel

isolated from each other and from their country.

As Marc Levin noted in a NEWSWEEK piece on the economy. One

fourth of the full time jobs vanished in the 80's. In any

one year, when unemployment rate is calculated on moving

from one full time job to another full time job, the

unemployment rate is about 20. TIME notes that  over half

of the new jobs created each year are part time, contract,

or temporary. We are now in Toftier's THIRD WAVE.

The FUTURIST'S own Prof. Gene Stephens notes, though it is

imperfectly measured, crime has increased throughout the

democratic world with the collapse of the "safety net."

America  with the most imperfect safe y net among

democracies  and was the first to fall in terms of "future

shock."

 

GLOBAL CAPITALISM

 

What is difficult for both American owners and workers to

compete in the world market is where another competitor can

quickly hire on peasants or children in another country to

produce goods at extremely low pay. Thus good jobs that required strong bodies, can now easily move outside our

society. And most will not return.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the American household according to NEWSWEEK is compared

in constant 1974 dollars, Americans should be making about

48,000 dollars today rather than 30,000 dollars when

futurists were interviewed in 1974 by US NEWS . As you

recall earlier, the futurists (then called futurologists)

perceived that we would be a much more Liberal society

because of the trends toward prosperity.

 

Today, most democratic countries are less prosperous and

appear toward be moving to a more privatized economy. In the

USA, the Left and Liberals appear defeated and

disillusioned. Libertarians and Neo-Cons of the Right are

exhilarated.

 

Conservative, Peter Drucker in a recent issue of THE

ATLANTIC MONTHLY  suggests that the demise of the welfare

state be replaced by what he calls the "social sector" that

is schools, churches, charities, and related. These

institutions would help those who have fallen from the grace

of the market place.

 

SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC CAPITALISM

 

If tracking data is correct, Americans feel ambivalent about

capitalism. They like it's efficiency and it's dynamism, but

fear they may not make it in the global arena. They are what

Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich call the "anxious class."

If anything, this class appears to be increasing annually.

They are terrified about the global information society just

as farmers feared the industrial revolution. They like

social security,medicare and the deduction on the interest

of the home mortgage. Most would prefer having a medical

plan through their company then to go and purchase health

insurance on their own.

In fact, conservative . "'"ZNESS WEEK endorsed a single payer

system(with "caps" and co-payments) as did the American

Medical Association's College of Surgeons. Humans appear to

have a rage for order, and Americans are no different.

In academic words, this means Americans prefer "mixed

economies." Thus they want capitalism to drive the engine,

but a very mild form of socialism to protect them from harms

way. Most know that bad things can happen to good people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE FUTURE OF SOCIALISM

 

Recently, NEW REPUBLIC reviewed a book written by Carlo

Rosselli written before he was killed by the Nazis in World

War II. Roselli in his book LIBERAL SOCIALISM described a

very mild form of socialism that looks to civil society to

augment a capitalism that keeps the market alive and morale

improved. Roselli supports private property.

 

Recently, TIME did a review of the decline of Welfare

Liberalism in the USA. What went wrong? Government became an

activist agent almost exclusively of those on the fringe

rather than middle income(this extends to the working poor.)

Essayist Charles Krauthammer describes a public beach,

called "Jones Beach." The public loved it and foreign

Leftist admire it. Why? Because it was a beach for the great

middle of America. He then goes on to lament that Liberalism

overlooked the "great forgotten middle class." Remember that

1992 election applause line of President Clinton's?

 

NATION recently described a eurosocialism in the following

way: pluralistic, nonauthoritarian,capitalist friendly, with

a healthy respect for economic equality and social

planning(industrial trades policy.) Why this last statement

may be important is that both conservative BUSINESS WEEK AND

US NEWS lament that the USA has the greatest inequality of

all industrial democracies, and in the long run, it is bad

for business because the middle class dwindles, consumption

is reduced, and banks increasing lend money to marginal

consumers who more easily default on loans. Thus a crash of

the economy and the country become more eminent. This was

the message of Batra's THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF THE 1990's.

What does Toffler have to say?  Socialism is necessary

during a crisis like the 30's. A mild form of socialism

keeps people busy and working. It also saves and protects

capitalism. He made this case to a conservative group of

businessman in  Sweden and elsewhere.

 

When the crisis is over, the economy privatizes. And that is

probably the future of socialism.

That word now means a form of capitalism that a country

looks to during a crisis so that once investment capital

returns, a country moves to social democratic capitalism or

libertarian capitalism. And if current trends continue into

the future  here in the states and overseas, it may be the

latter.

 

 

 

 

 

From THE NEW YORK TIMES,British Labor Party leader Tony

Blair, "Comrades, there should be a partnership between

government and the marketplace to generate full employment.

We are a mainstream voice in politics today. We have a

belief in society. Working together. Solidarity.

 

Cooperation. Partnership. These are our words. This is my

socialism...It is not the Socialism of Marx or state control."

In other words, socialism is now a wing of capitalism.

As always, the future appears to be full of ironies.

 

Professor Joel Snell

Kirkwood College

Arlington Institute