THE GREAT EMERGENCY

KUNTSLER, JAMES (2005) THE LONG EMERGENCY (NEW YORK: ATLANTIC MONTHLY PRESS) 307 PAGES.

Paul Ehrlich’s popular POPULATION BOMB proved to make some serious errors about population increase impacts. However, he was not all wrong. He indicated that populations would explode around the world and that has held up. From 196o’s to 2005, the United States has increased its population by 100 million people. In the world from 1960, there were roughly 3 billion. Today in 2005, there are 6.5 billion. In the last 40 years, the USA increased by a third and the world more than doubled.  

Further, domestic oil peaked in 1970 and we have had to increasingly rely on foreign oil. This second event along with other factors has changed America domestically and in international policy.

Kunstler writes in the same alarmist tone. We are sleepwalking into the future. We really don’t realize how little oil is left for burgeoning populations. The big players are the States, Europe, Scandinavia, India, and China. We will theoretically peak at Thanksgiving 2005. However the remaining oil will be much harder to get, it will not be of the superb quality that we had before. Although oil is only 3% of total energy it is at strategic places in the production process and the financial food chain.

Modernism and technology is based on cheap oil. Both may disappear as America in 20 or 30 years will move back to subsistent farmers like those in Mexico. Our best shot is to make lots and lots of nuclear reactors to help us over the hump of numerous problems. Alternative fuels are great but they don’t deliver the same amount of energy per buck that nuclear does. However, both of these sources along with coal take years and years to create before we can dramatically reduce our oil consumption.

Don’t count on American car makers to help. They will fight and fight to keep the guzzlers. Americanized smart cars (two seaters) and 4 door econo cars are the future and they will be made by other countries.

Cities will begin to deconstruct and facilities like stores, schools, gas stations, religious centers will be in walk able distances. Microbuses, K-12 houses, in-home stores, and internet shopping will replace the life that we live now.

Nature will bite back with new virulent diseases because we don’t have the geological energy to create health systems and antibiotics to kill them. That means big die- offs and in home delivery of babies. The medical system will be overwhelmed. Spacious suburban sprawl will be replaced by megapolitan subsistent farms worked by Ma’s and Pa’s. Globalism will be deflated as well as nationalism. Buddy can you spare a dime?

We are on a highway to hell and we continually deny it.

HOWEVER, the most important part of the book is that it is riveting to read even if it may be wrong. Kunstler is not a geologist or energy specialist. His book is poorly sourced. He assumes that the public when they start paying five to $7.50 a gallon will not demand more energy development. He keeps denying that anybody can do anything. Fools live in the suburbs and American cities are poorly maintained. If you agree with the last statement, you still don’t have to buy his entire scenario. He does not believe that alternative fuels or even new fuels are probable. He keeps building and building to his conclusion without looking at alternative futures.

In the 1940’s and 50’s science fiction writers and futurist promised that we would all live in dream homes and that each of us would have our own helicopter pad for our plane. Further, what is one going to do when dad works a 25 hour work week and mom is a homemaker? By the 60’s, we headed in the other direction and much of the popular literature suggest that the future world is a ghetto.

If we adapt as we have had to in the past, we will quickly change to survive. Kuntsler assumes that we will not do so. Much of the entire infrastructure of Europe and UK were in tatters after World War II. Well, there back with relatively strong economies. It is time to change and Kunstler biggest contribution is to alarm us into action. That means supporting all the energy sources as well as energy conservation.  

This is a worst case scenario.