FUTURISM IN ACADEMIA: A DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION

 

 

 

Introduction

 

In the mid 60’s, THE  FUTURIST began publication. Both THE FUTURIST and the World Future Society  were created to encourage numerous parties including private and public institutions to start thinking about the future. Most individuals involved in this enterprise cautioned the public that at times  THE FUTURIST would publish “forecasts” but not predictions as that second word

connoted a degree of accuracy not obtainable by most or all human beings (Cornish, Edward, 1997.)

 

Over the years, numerous strategies have been used to make prognostications about future

events and emerging behavior and institutions. (Snell, Joel & R. Gary Dean,  1975.)

 

Accuracy

 

Recently,  THE FUTURIST has evaluated the accuracy of the first forecast made in 1967. Edward Cornish the author of the article, and the president of the World Future Society noted in that early inaugural issue  that 68%  of the forecasts were correct. He viewed this in the negative. (Cornish, Edward 1997.)  The authors  disagree. If this level of accuracy was obtainable in sports (Young, 1997) business or academia, it would be considered a success (Donnelly, David 1997.)

 

There is considerable literature about technical stock forecasts and 70% accuracy is thought to be short of

excellent (Phillips, Howard, 1997.) Recently, a stock forecaster who able to predict market flow with over a 70% accuracy was given unusual coverage in BUSINESS WEEK (1997:132-133.)

On the other hand, psychics when analyzed for accuracy from 1979 to the end of 1997, had less than a 1% accuracy rate (CNN, 1998.) It is unclear, how accurate science fiction writers have been (Clarke, 1991, Brunner, 1993.)

 

It is hard to mathematically  to assess what chance would be with a 68% accuracy, however, using a 2x 2 table, for chi square, 68% is 4.75 for chance. It is significant at the .05 level.

 

Using  the  " Cornish criteria", the authors analyzed another article published in 1974  making forecasts about 1994. In a  US NEWS & WORLD REPORT article entitled “What Life Will Be Like  20  Years In  The Future”  ( 1974:72-75.)both authors analyzed the accuracy of  the forecast and we found roughly a 70%  accuracy rate.  Once again, this is quite good by comparing this with other standards.

 

Application

 

If this level of accuracy remains in further studies, we would suggest that futurism become part of   mainstream academia. There  are some possible applications and they are the following:

 

1. Although futurism, futurology, future studies is now advertised by a few schools in the THE FUTURIST, it is quite possible that futurism could not necessarily become a major, but could be incorporated in the curriculum. One of the authors’ text book has a future section at the end of each chapter (Sullivan, 1997.)

 

2. For less than $2,000.00, the entire microfiche of  THE  FUTURIST can be purchased

and numerous studies can be done relative to the accuracy of  futurists. Not only accuracy

can be nominally measured, but numerous multiple regression analysis (forward  solution and

step wise) in terms of which futurist or which topics where the futurists are most accurate could be conducted.*

 

 

 

3. Environmental scanning has become part of the academic enterprise. One of the
authors scans not only for his “think tank” but also for his school. In this way,

 possible future trends become known to not only the futurist, but also to important

constituents who may have to make knowledgeable decisions about the life and death of

their institutions that they administer.** There is now a community college consortium

that deals with issues that impact on community colleges. It is called TRENDLINK

and is thought to be excellent.(Friedel, J.N. 1994.)

 

4.   A futurist course could become part of the curriculum. As in criminal justice studies and a number of other applied areas, a futurist courses or courses,  would be multidisciplinary.(Siegal, 1989:6.)

 

 

5. Futurism could become so acceptable, that most schools would have a major in the

area. The curriculum would include not only the theories, disciplines complimenting the

field, but also the methodology used to forecast.

 

 

Conclusion

 

Futurism has the potential to make numerous contributions to academia.

 

 

References cited

 

___________, “What Life Will Be Like  20 Years In The Future: US NEWS & WORLD

REPORT,  January 14, 1974, 72-75.

 

___________, “Psychics strike out, again, on 1997 predictions” CNN interactive News, January 1,

1998. (quick news index)

 

Brunner, John “Sometime in the recent Future” NEW SCIENTIST, April 10, 1993, p.28.

 

Clarke, I.F. “Factor three: Science and  Fiction”  FUTURES,  July-August 1991, p. 637.

 

Cornish, Edward, “The Futurist Forecasts 30 Years Later” THE FUTURIST, January-February, 1997

45-48. Also see, Davidson, Keay “Futurists Flocking to Frisco” (San Francisco Examiner)  SIOUX CITY JOURNAL, Friday, July 18, 1997, B-10.

 

 

Donnelly, David, “Forecasting Assessment Literature” (internet: bentley.uh/co)

April 29, 1997, 1-3. See also, Moss, Scott “Computability, Forecasting and Fortune Telling”

(internet: weatherhead.cwru.com) April 29, 1997. and Haines, Kathryn “Financial Engineer Hits With Fund, Stock Forecasts”(internet www.duke.edu.) April 29, 1997.1-2 and

Smart, Charles “Forecasting: Criticizing the Criticism” (internt: www.byte.com/art)1.

 

Edminson, Gail  "Good Eye, Mr. Chips: Dauvin of  SGS is uncanny at calling industry swings”

BUSINESS WEEK, September 8, 1997, 132-133.

 

Friedel,J.N., TRENDLINK, (Cedar Rapids,Iowa: Kirkwood Press) January 1994, 1-11.

 

Phillips, Howard “What is Forecasting Accuracy?”(internet:www.duke.edu) April 29, 1997 1-3.

Price Forecasts

 

Siegal, Larry  CRIMINOLOGY (St. Paul, Minn: West Publishing) 1989:6.

 

Snell, Joel and R. Gary Dean  TO THE YEAR 2020: THE DANA REPORT(Omaha: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) 1975.

 

Sullivan, Thomas J. INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL PROBLEMS (Needham Heights:Ma:

Allyn &Bacon) 1997.

 

Young, Mark C., THE GUINESS BOOK OF RECORDS (New York: Guiness Media, Inc.)

1997, p. 212

 

*Special thanks to  Ms. Jill Miller, former Director of Library Resources, Kirkwood Community College. Additionally, a sincere thanks to Mr. Gary Botos for his research for this

article.

** Special Appreciation to Mr. John L. Petersen, President of the Arlington Institute,

Arlington, Virginia. My thanks to  Dr.Norm Nielsen, Dr. Terry Moran, and Prof./Dean

Dan Tesar.