THE NEW SCIENCE ( CHAOS THEORY, CATASTROPHIC THEORY, AND TOPOLOGICAL THEORY): A MULTIDISCPLINARY APPROACH TO DRAGAN MILOVANIC’S

"MAPPING THE TERRAIN."

 

 

INTRODUCTION

 

The authors will attempt to provide reader with two aspects of information .

 

 First, we will try to provide a simpler and clearer

explanation of  Dragan Milovanics’s” Postmodern criminology: Mapping the Terrain.”

Secondly, we will try to utilize applications of his explanation to numerous fields in the social sciences.

 

Originally, Milovanic’s article was in the JUSTICE QUARTERLY, Volume 13, No. 4, December, 1996.

pages 567-610.

 

Milovanic’s article is an outstanding one on the edge of a new way of modeling and measuring a more subtle reality that has occurred over time. It deals with  non-linear behavior that is

for current social sciences very elusive. He introduces chaos theory, catastrophic theory, and topological theory.

 

BACKGROUND

 

Early on in the social sciences, quantitative analysis was bi-variate. Controlling for a number of variables

was utilized by multi-tabular analysis. Later, multiple regression became mainstream through the use of forward, step-wise, and path analysis. All three assumed hard numbers analysis, so that walking and dying were numerically related.

 

Anything that could not be quantified was “noise” or extraneous. It was / is a Newtonian conception of the world.

 

In the mean time, qualitative social scientists along with the arts, linguists, semanticists, symbolic interactionists, and others questioned the validity of applying numbers to human behavior in such a cavalier fashion. In other words, “the peace that passes all understanding “is not necessarily quantifiable

 

We believe that Milovanic is on to something. Chaos theory alone has nearly 4,000 entries on INFOSEEK, on the Internet. Although it originates from the physical sciences, the author warns that not only chaos, but catastrophic, and topological theory  should invade and infuse all the social sciences.

 

The only problem that we see with his article is that he gives too much to the social science academician in one sitting. However, it did warrant publication in an outstanding journal..

 

Before we move to explanations and applications, we do want to indicate that we do not oppose

current quantification. It is and has been extremely helpful and will  continue to be so in the future

 

CHAOS THEORY

 

THEORY

 

Chaos theory attempts to explain how disorder (chaos) at the micro-level gives rise to order at the macro level.

 

A brief and imperfect explanation includes the following:

 

1. Behavior that is not easily measured is called a fractal.

 

2. Fractals are likely to be non-linear.

 

3. Non-linear behavior at times “settles down” so that it can be measured. This momentary stop is

called a  phase portrait.

 

4. A phase portrait comes together and “settles down” because of attractors.

 

5. Attractors (point, cyclic, torus, and strange attractors) direct behavior to a region, create limitations to form boundaries, cause drag to form stoppages, and enhance dynamism  to move. Thus stimulating ultimately bifurcation or splintering.

 

6. Bifurcation  initially creates new fractals of behavior.

 

Chaos theory attempts to explain how, but not necessarily why, vacillating, episodic, and stachotic behavior occurs. It is non-linear and probably is caused by iterations or feed back loops that continually make subtle, at times, discontinuous, and disorderly  directions of human activity.

 

 

 

ILLUSTRATION

 

An illustration is as follows. Up close, rush traffic is hellish, and yet most folks leave for a destination  in their cars and arrive.  Cars zoom in and out. Near collisions occur. There are a few accidents, and yet most get home. Some roads are closed and new ones are opened. The system thrives.

 

However, if cars don’t work and roads close down, the system withers. The hellishness from a distance is

orderly.  Thus, order emerges from disorder, and chaos gives rise to order.

 

Each individual car zooms in and out. When we take pictures of the movement of one car and many others that share the road, this is like a phase portrait. Fractals determine the erratic behavior. Bifurcation is the outcome of what appears to be erratic behavior. However, chaotic disorder gives rise to order as nearly everyone reaches their destination.

 

 

 

 

APPLICATION

 

 

SOCIOLOGY;

PSYCHOLOGY:

POLITICAL SCIENCE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE:

ECONOMICS:

 

 

 

CATASTROPHIC THEORY

 

 

THEORY

 

This theory attempts to explain explosive behavior.

 

 

The cusp catastrophic behavior attempts to explain how, but not necessarily why, there is explosive behavior.  An illustration will be used to show how it is easier to refrain from violence, but that certain times, push comes to shove, and explosion occurs.

 

The theory imperfectly stated is the following.

 

Stability gives rise to agitation. Agitation gives rise to flight or fight. Flight become fight if the individual(s) explodes over the catastrophic fold. Catastrophic fold fight then subsides to stability.

 

 

 ILLUSTRATION

 

 

Imagine that the cars which have been zooming to various places, going from origin to destination,

come upon a large crack in the highway. The crack occurs in one lane, but not the other. There is

no other way home. The  uphill one way two lane, has one lane with a huge crack, wave, or fold, and the other is okay. As this is the only way home, travelers begin to push and shove to get to the lane that is traversable. It is easier to stay at the bottom, but folks want to get home. Sooner or later,

an individual car makes the leap to get over the crack and all hell breaks loose upon the other drivers.  There are a number of accidents along with fistfights. Thereafter, law enforcement officials show up, and direct traffic to go through the one lane that is good and order prevails. Why did one driver and then others “loose their patience.” Why is it, that when you blow up a ballon, there is a

point where it will explode?Catastrophic theory attempts to explain how, but not necessarily why

there is explosive panic and behavior.

 

 

APPLICATION

 

SOCIOLOGY:

PSYCHOLOGY:

POLITICAL SCIENCE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE:

ECONOMICS:

 

 

 

TOPOLOGICAL THEORY

 

THEORY

 

Topological theory tries to explain how subtly thought and action intertwine.

 

A Mobius band is a strip of paper that has been twisted once and then reconnected with glue.

Imagine that an ant is placed on the band and it scurries along it to get  away from any predators.

As it runs along the band, it goes from the outside of the band to the inside, because of the twist.

This activity is not necessarily understandable to the ant, but to the outside observer, the twist

makes inside and outside a smooth transition.  This transition is the relationship between thought

and action. Inside thoughts can become outside action. It is done when the ant crosses the bar

that holds the twisted strip of paper together. Crossing the bar means there is a spark of creativity, understanding, or making sense of the wider world and defining it.

 

Thus, interaction is continuos. Continuos behavior creates bar crossing. Bar crossing creates outside action into inside thought. Inside thought creates new interactions.

 

 

ILLUSTRATION

 

Again, cars are zooming in and out. As the traffic becomes crowded, cars are bumper to bumper at

a very high speed. During this time, drivers are continually moving and thinking at the same time.

A mistake made in an instant second, could mean life, death, or dismemberment. Drivers become

anxious or some experience “road rage.” Some pull off to the side of the road to collect their thoughts and feel more comfortable. Others plow on, and some slow down and are passed by numerous cars. Thought and action are rapid.

 

Traffic begins to lighten up and disperse. Thought and action slow down. Some begin to experience

"highway hypnosis." Drivers begin to define when it is good and safe to drive on this road.

 

 

 

APPLICATION

 

SOCIOLOGY:

PSYCHOLOGY:

POLITICAL SCIENCE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE:

 

 

DISCLAIMER

 

 

It may be that these three micro theories indicated above may compliment the three major theories of the social sciences. The equilibrium model (functionalism) may be represented by chaos theory. Catastrophic theory could assist critical or conflict theories. The topological theory could support interactionism. However, the author does not make this connection.

 

Additionally, the necessity to use the terms  "modeling" and "theory" synonymously is to use the same nomenclature as Milovanic. We understand them to be different.

 

The three theories discussed in Milovanic’s article may/may not be associated with postmodernism, deconstructionism, feminist theory, or critical criminology.

 

Milovanic hints that these three theories may become quantifiable. We hope that this is the case.

 

Last, this derivation of quantum physics translated into social sciences probably means that prediction and control are less likely to be viable. On the other hand, the areas of discovery and description of relationships is more likely.

 

CONCLUSION

 

This has been an interpretation and simplification of Dragon Milovanic’s “postmodern criminology: Mapping the terrain.” It was originally published in the JUSTICE QUARTERLY.

The authors added possible applications to the major fields of sociology, psychology, political sciences, criminal justice, and economics.