BOOK REVIEW

ADDENDUM

CHAOS THEORY: CATASTROPHIC THEORY

A BOOK REVIEW

Gladwell, Malcom THE TIPPING POINT (2000) Boston: Little Brown and Company.

INTRODUCTION

This is an excellent book featuring catastrophic theory, where small change in confluence with other stimuli summates to a major significant change. It was one of a number of perspectives that comprise chaos theory. However, this new addition to the social science literature explains in social terms how a tipping point surfaces.

The foundation of catastrophic theory is that a tipping point, critical mass, or new threshold is reached almost overnight by a series of events that may not be newsworthy, but silently build to a crescendo where change occurs. As an example, crime plummeted when Wilson’s “broken window theory” became popular and citizens of the big apple became annoyed or terrified with crime on an everyday basis. Mayor Guiliani used the broken window theory (those small flaws in the environment) by cracking down on graffiti. After that, a series of steps to make arrest easier helped crime plummet.

In chaos theory, Snell, Cangemi (see earlier) and others described the phenomena with physical science premises followed by social science examples. This book goes one step further by describing the social triggers that bring about social change.

The 3 rules of tipping point are the law of the few, the stickiness factor, and the power of context.

THE LAW OF THE FEW

There are just a few individuals that create change and they can connect with others with about 5 or 6 degrees of separation. These individuals have the sociological and psychological acumen to effect change. They are:

"Connectors" are folks who know most people that can create change. Their Rolodex is filled with the change leaders and all the people that they know who can fill the ranks for social change. From a few, one can draw upon the thousands. Connectors can help cause a social virus of epidemic proportions that facilitate the necessary change. If you want things done, you go to these special opinion leaders.

"Mavens" are the edge people that start new trends. They know the "buzz" and can facilitate change, but they can not create or sell change to others. Mavens

are obsessed with the “new” in the social environment.

"Persuaders" are the one's that sell social change. The most charismatic get in the media, and change begins with a diffusion process to the rest of us.

Thus, if you want social change, the connectors get you to the mavens who distribute ideas to the persuaders who in turn market it to the rest of the population.

All this would support Pareto’s optimum ratio that 20% account for about 80% of everything. Or, Michel’s “iron law of oligarchy” that in the end a few direct and persuade the many.

THE STICKINESS FACTOR

How is it that some ideas have more adhesion to form cohesion among the leaders? Part of the social glue of an idea begins with the discussion above relative to the few who persuade the many. The author draws from direct marketers who know in a very short time know what works to sell a product or service.

One is the messenger (the salesperson listed and discussed above.) Second

is the ad that creates a feeling that isolated individuals are part of the message. Third, there must be an easy entry to get from the message to the product or service (in this instance are ideas.) Last, is the repetition necessary so that the many can hear from the few. Thus, change occurs.

THE POWER OF CONTEXT

An earth-shaking event ignites the change. All the above discussed is boiling under and is ready to surface, then a president is killed, or two airplanes deliberately ram and destroy prominent buildings in New York city, or a whole fleet of ships are destroyed in a surprise attack in the harbor called Pearl.

In reverse fashion, a hapless subway rider shoots 4 young men who are trying to mug him on the New York City subway. Say the name Bernie Goetz and even 20 years later, eyes light up. He is the guy who temporarily went to jail while his assailants appeared to go free..atleast those that survived.

Although personalities and demographics are salient, context starts the epidemic of change. The power of the environment is demonstrated in the Zimbardo study where nice students quickly turned into brutal people given the right environment.

However, this is not deterministic. There is a continuum of internal and external triggers of personality and environment in terms of whom becomes the most brutal.

From this discussion, the environmental and personal triggers give rise to the quality of the power of numbers.

Sociologists describe the primary group as a very small group that is no more

than 15 and usually the number is smaller. They are the ones that share secrets and bonds in life. Secrets are traded and intimacies abound. Peer pressure is immense.

Psychologically, individuals can only handle about 6 or 7 categories in short-term memory. Sociologically, between 10 and 15 members is all the room there is in one’s primary group. On the macro-level, 150 are tops. Beyond that, few have that much in common. As noted earlier, 20% account for about 80% of most anything.

After that, there is overload. To repeat: 7 categories, 20%/80%, 15 people in primary group and 150 in work groups. From all this comes social change.

These numbers are the environmental triggers on our character and are ability to effect change.

How does numbers impact on our choices and our character to create change? It is through a diffusion of ideas that go through a series of epidemic curves, starting slowly, tipping, rising sharply, and becoming mainstream (institutionalization.)

Rumors and influence are the seeds of tipping. This applies to shoes, suicide, smoking, and a whole host of other human activities.

Thus chaos as witnessed by catastrophic theory is presented in this excellent book about tipping and social change.

CHAOS THEORY: TOPOLOGICAL THEORY

A BOOK REVIEW

Derber, Charles, THE WILDING OF AMERICA, GREED, VIOLENCE, AND THE NEW AMERICAN DREAM, (2002) 2^nd edition, New York: Worth Publishers.

"Wilding" originally meant that gangs of usually males would collectively attack at random an individual for money, sex, or humiliation. In this book, it is a metaphor

for anti-social degenerate individualism.

The IK culture is known among anthropologist as the most evil, mean spirited culture among remaining tribal societies today. What they do to others as well as what harm they bring within the group is beyond description. The author contends that this is where the USA is headed today.

The book is an application of topological theory today as indicated by Snell, Cangemi et. al. (see earlier) In physical science terms, topological theory is like a mobius band that is twisted once and connected to form a double eight circle.

An ant is placed on the band and it scurries forward going from the outside of the band to the inside without every making a jump. The band is slow and continuos like social thought that slowly evolves from one value perhaps to its opposite.

Thus, once materialistic, but generous Americans have gradually withdrawn from public life in pursuit of their own loneliness rather than fight the evils of the night on the street.

Thus, in this historical cycle, many Americans are moving from an optimistic and empathetic society to something like the IK.

What are the components that slowly and in topological ways move us into a meaner society? The author list many causes. However, he describes two Americas of wilders and non-wilders as a simple metaphor to describe the ascent of wilders.

Although this was written before the attack of the pentagon and the world trade center attacks, the short social solidarity that followed these events appears to have diminished. Again wilding (the unencumbered, unlimited selfishness) appears to have blossomed. The January 28, 2002 TIME magazine cover suggests: “You’re on your own, baby- so many choices, and no one to trust in today’s world.”

Derber suggests that Durkheim’s description of social isolation and anomie is still pertinent today. This work has a commutarian premise and looks to a society that is social democratic capitalism. Thus, there is a balance between unregulated individualism and unregulated community order.

In topological fashion (p.19) “wilding” is a gradual product “of a declining society that is losing it’s authority to instill respect for social values and obligations.” It is also the basis of Robert Merton’s strain theory (all somehow want success, or should want success, but vary in their adaptations where pecuniary or monetary achievement is paramount.

Derber than describes wilding at various levels. His first is popular culture and everyday life. Wilding in this dimension, every one cheats. Additionally, the media encourages it. In the mean time, consumers are continually tempted with things they do not necessarily need and the economy has bifurcated. The top 20% made the most economic gains since the 1970’s and the bottom 80% have stagnated. Thus, there has been a credit card mania slipping the bottom into further debt. Further, lying is necessary to get ahead or not get ripped off. It is a survivalist mentality.

Students binge drink, cheat on exams, abuse credit, and watch violent and sexually explicit genre. The folks at the bottom want to violate the law to get their share.

At the economic level, corporations cheat and abuse workers and consumers. They leave employee pensioners penniless. Capital can move almost anywhere and labor can not. Thus momentum drives down wages and pushes up profit.

Corporate welfare fosters global sweatshops and environmental degradation. Temping becomes the norm and immigrants keep internal domestic wages low. Workers become cynical and become part of the nickel and dimed masses. Robber barons return to Wall Street.

Countervailing forces such as stock analysts and accountants are bought off by huge corporate entities as they become deregulated. Overcapacity is created and volatility is encouraged.

At the social level, crime is cut in half since the mid 70’s, but is higher than any other industrialized democracy. It has drifted to the suburbs, national parks, and in domestic settings.

The family is being shredded. Thirty percent of households are individuals not families. This is an historic high. It is too easy to get pregnant, to get married, and to get divorced. Marriages on average last 4 years for the first coupling.

Our infrastracture of roads, bridges, schools and related are in need of repair and replacement. Various statistics are noted.

We have become a nation of prisons.

The author suggests a commutarian ethic to infuse in one or both parties (now propped up by corporate interests.) It is based on social democratic capitalism rather than laissez faire markets.

The author’s tone in writing is one in which the spiral could go up, but is likely to go downward. In topological fashion, the events described above, gradually turn trusting empathetic social members into degenerate individuals who look out only for themselves.

The non-wilders (those kindly souls) withdraw and cocoon. When they venture out, they may be like Putnam’s folks who “bowl alone” in the afternoons.

CHAOS THEORY:

BOOK REVIEW

Caldini, Robert THE PSYCHOLOGY OF INFLUENCE OF PERSUASION

(1993) Revised edition (New York: William Morrow)

The world is a chaotic place and humans appear to have a rage for order. At time, humans can think critically and at other times faithfully. When one is a target of mass marketing, the stimuli- media encourages the person to think with one's glands or non-critically. In other words, this is a form of thinking unknowingly, unconsciously, neither critically nor faithfully. In other words, this is a form of thinking where external and internal triggers create a “click-whir” process of survival behavior. As ethnologist note, this surviving mechanism helps individuals and groups to seek life even if it means following the herd over a cliff. Marketers have learned to short circuit this perception-action and Cialdini is there for us to understand the process and fight back. In other words, he becomes the Holden Caulfield of CATCHER IN THE RYE. He describes various weapons of influence and how to resist them in this chaotic world.

Like an automatic pilot partly out of kilter, the following are the short circuit

chaos reducing, fuzzy logic used by us. They are:

"Reciprocation" You get a gift in the mail and feel obligated to reciprocate with money. In the industry, the gift is called "slum" It is cheap and inexpensive, but invites guilt from the perceiver. The author encourages the reader to accept the gift graciously.

"Commitment and consistency" In this instance, the marketer gets one to say yes to a few non-controversial questions. Then when the product or service is suggested, one has to go against themselves (cognitive dissonance) if one wants to act rationally and orderly in a chaotic world, one feels obligated to say "yes."

One has made a commitment. To say “no” one must intervene early in the conversation and tell the marketer what they are doing. If one can do that, one has made order out of chaos.

"Social proof" Chaos abounds, one looks to others for order. What are others doing? One thinks others know what we don't know and in collective confusion,

we go along. Laugh tracks, shills in an audience, and comments like the “fastest growing” or bandwagon effect helps all us perhaps to go on a highway to nowhere. The author suggests to resist it by developing one’s own internal clock

or voice.

"Liking" It is very hard to say no to some one you like. So? Buy as little as possible. All of us are vulnerable to the physically attractive, individuals who we perceive as being like ourselves, who flatter us, and those who appear cooperative. Liking appears to be an orderly process in a disorderly world.

"Authorities" Good people are told to do bad things in a chaotic environment. They usually follow authority figures' requests. Authority is given to few individuals by clothing and titles.

"Scarcity" in a chaotic world, we may go without. So buy now, if you don't want to be left behind or left alone. Scarcity also has a deadline. We can lose some freedoms if we don't act now. Perhaps, there is only one left and there may be another potential buyer. All of this causes "brain clouding arousal" To say no,

the author encourages calm and indicates that overwhelmingly, there is usually

more.

To reduce chaos, the author calls for arming oneself from the exploiters. Chaos remains, but you can still make choices if you know the strategies of confusion and the superficial order promised from the chaotic world.

CHAOS THEORY: CATASTROPHIC THEORY

BOOK REVIEW

Petersen, John OUT OF THE BLUE (1997) Danielle, Arlington, Virginia :La Porte Book Publishers

This book by award winning John L. Petersen is a first class experience in reading about catastrophic theory. What Petersen does is examine close to

190 wild cards that pop up in the future (unannounced and unwanted.) There is even a page for what happened 9/11/01.

Each page has some probable kinds of events like a large blackout to a computer virus to possible occurrences where folks learn how to do out-of body experiences or UFO’s become a recognized reality.

Then the author takes each “out of the blue” event and discusses possible social and technical implications and where original sources may be obtained. After that, each event is placed in a number categories (impact factors) and given a tentative number on the impact on society in encouraging…chaos, although that term is not necessarily used.

The categories are rate of change, reach, vulnerability, outcome, timing, opposition, power factor, impact index, foresight factor and quality.

The book is an insightful and readable source and can easily be used to discuss

Numerous impacts in the future. The possible implications include such things as tools, energy, group relations, wellness, and others.

Although this was published in 1997, the reader should look at some of the wild cards discussed and categories. This includes: terrorism goes biological, human mutation, medical breakthrough, bacteria becomes immune to antibiotics, terrorist attack in the united states, environmental war criminals are prosecuted,

The growth of new age philosophies, stock market crash, second nations get nuclear weapons, and related are discussed. It is an excellent book for the chaos theory library.

This is an excellent resource in catastrophic theory and its related components.